Inflation Rate (CPI) vs Sahm Rule Indicator

Inflation Rate (CPI)

Consumer Price Index YoY change

3.7%
-6.08%
Above Target
334 330 327 Feb'26 Mar'26 Apr'26 May'26 Jun'26 Jul'26

Sahm Rule Indicator

Real-time recession indicator

0.00%
-100.00%
No Recession Signal
0.30 0.11 -0.07 Feb'26 Mar'26 Apr'26 May'26 Jun'26 Jul'26 Aug'26

Indicator Comparison

Inflation Rate (CPI) Sahm Rule Indicator
Current 3.7% 0.00%
Change -6.08% -100.00%
Status Above Target No Recession Signal
Data Source FRED CPIAUCSL FRED SAHMREALTIME
Update Frequency Monthly Monthly
Last Updated August 1, 2026 September 1, 2026