Sahm Rule Indicator vs Inflation Rate (CPI)

Sahm Rule Indicator

Real-time recession indicator

0.00%
-100.00%
No Recession Signal
0.30 0.11 -0.07 Feb'26 Mar'26 Apr'26 May'26 Jun'26 Jul'26 Aug'26

Inflation Rate (CPI)

Consumer Price Index YoY change

3.7%
-6.08%
Above Target
334 330 327 Feb'26 Mar'26 Apr'26 May'26 Jun'26 Jul'26

Indicator Comparison

Sahm Rule Indicator Inflation Rate (CPI)
Current 0.00% 3.7%
Change -100.00% -6.08%
Status No Recession Signal Above Target
Data Source FRED SAHMREALTIME FRED CPIAUCSL
Update Frequency Monthly Monthly
Last Updated September 1, 2026 August 1, 2026