Unemployment Rate vs Sahm Rule Indicator

Unemployment Rate

US unemployment rate

4.2%
-2.33%
Normal
4.4 4.3 4.2 Feb'26 Mar'26 Apr'26 May'26

Sahm Rule Indicator

Real-time recession indicator

0.07%
-46.15%
No Recession Signal
0.30 0.18 0.07 Feb'26 Mar'26 Apr'26 May'26

Indicator Comparison

Unemployment Rate Sahm Rule Indicator
Current 4.2% 0.07%
Change -2.33% -46.15%
Status Normal No Recession Signal
Data Source FRED UNRATE FRED SAHMREALTIME
Update Frequency Monthly Monthly
Last Updated June 1, 2026 June 1, 2026